Morgan Stanley Report Says Macau GGR Will Continue to Fall This Year

In a new report, Morgan Stanley has revealed that it expects gaming turnover in Macau will plunge 35% this year, more than double the bank’s previous estimate of a 16% contraction.

Earlier, the government projected a 50% drop in 2020 GGR because of the COVID-19 outbreak. GGR there fell by a record 87.9% in February amid a 15-day government-enforced casino closure. Now, the analysts expect the March number to decline 75% to 80% on a year-over-year basis.

Nearly all of Macau’s roughly 40 casinos are currently operational – a few are being used as quarantine centres for screening and treating coronavirus patients – but the Special Administrative Region (SAR) is still enduring strict restrictions.

Lack of clarity on when Beijing will lift the IVS halt is prompting analysts to speculate that the first nine months of this year will essentially be a wash for Macau concessionaires and that no noticeable uptick in GGR will materialise until the fourth quarter.

“While we expect recovery to be slow, we anticipate VIP to turn around faster and Peninsula to benefit from land-based visitation,” Morgan Stanley said.