Gaming Executives Positive on Current Business Conditions, Cautious on Future Growth Expectations

Overall Balance Sheet Health, Access to Credit Continue to Improve 

In the face of slowing revenue expansion, gaming industry leaders continue to hold an overall positive view of the current business situation, with a notable improvement in credit conditions, according to the latest American Gaming Association (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

The majority of respondents (88%) view the current state of the gaming industry as either good or satisfactory. Meanwhile, executives have a more conservative outlook on future business conditions, with respondents split on whether they expect conditions to improve over the next three-to-six months (3% net positive) and many expecting a decrease in customer activity (28% net negative).

“After years of very strong consumer gaming spending growth, expectations around customer activity over the next three to six months have cooled considerably,” said AGA Vice President of Research David Forman. “Still, gaming businesses remain well positioned, with executives touting strong balance sheets and more viewing access to credit as easy than restrictive for the first time in two years.”

Gaming Executive Panel

Since Q1, gaming executives’ sentiment has shifted, with a greater number of respondents now expecting a decline in customer activity over the next three to six months (28% net negative, up from 4% net negative in Q1). Despite this, panelists foresee improvements in overall balance sheet health (34% net positive).

Additionally, more executives reported access to credit as easy (19%) rather than restrictive (3%) for the first time in two years, and fewer cite interest rates as a major limiting factor than in the spring.

Hotel (56%) and food and beverage facilities (56%) continue to be the main and growing focus of capital investment among operators, followed by live entertainment (28%) and casino floor slots (22%).

Meanwhile, gaming equipment suppliers now believe their pace of capital investment and game sales will decelerate (13% net negative).

These expectations are impacted by evolving macroeconomic challenges, with uncertainty of the economic environment vaulting to the top of executive concerns (56%, up from 34% in Q1), followed by state regulatory concerns (31%), and inflationary or interest rate concerns and geopolitical risk (both 34%).

The Current Conditions Index 

The Current Conditions Index for Q3 2024 was 97.3, which is consistent with real annualized contraction of 2.7 percent. The Current Conditions Index measures real economic activity in the industry, as measured by gaming revenue, employment and employee wages and salaries.

The Future Conditions Index 

The Future Conditions Index, a leading indicator of changes in industry conditions, measured 98.9 in Q3. This indicates an environment in which real economic activity in the gaming sector, after controlling for underlying inflation, is expected to moderately decrease over the next six months (1.1% annualized rate).